Mankind’s Greatest Challenges

Although you may have not heard about this, Oil Depletion and over population are the two greatest challenges that mankind will ever face.

For me, the part that is so astonishing is that most people are in denial of fact that the industrial age is about to come to an abrupt end. And yet, the facts are right there for all to see.

Our easy lifestyle, here in the US since the 1950’s is a direct result of cheap petroleum and our knowledge and ability to use petroleum. Looking back into history, we can see how production and consumption of petroleum directly corresponds with modern lifestyle to which we have become accustomed.

Before the industrial revolution began, the people in the US had a relatively meager existence. The bulk of our people were producing their own food on small farms, using horse drawn implements. Many of the mills that were in existence had to rely exclusively on water power. We used very little petroleum in those days.

Soon internal combustion engines, electric companies, heavy trucks, automobiles, railroads all sprang up. Modern agricultural machinery was invented. Less people were now needed to work the farms, and many went to the city to work in industrial factories.

Electricity meant that we could have many conveniences that greatly improved our way of life- like air conditioning, refrigeration, and running water.

The automobile and airplanes gave us easy personal transportation. Personal transportation meant that we could live quite a distance from where we worked. Other machinery like chain saws, welders, earth movers, and electric motors all became tools that we came to depend on.

All of this gave us the easy modern life that we now have. But the big problem is that all of this was made possible by petroleum. Petroleum is a finite resource. And petroleum is running out on the worldwide scale!

That is not the same as saying that we are ‘almost out’ of petroleum. But ‘empty’ is not the critical point in this scenario. The real problems come when the world has half of the oil left. That is the point where oil demand will be far greater than supply.

A graph of oil production in a typical oil well is shaped in a “normal distribution” or “bell shaped curve”. When an oil well is new, the oil comes out of the ground under pressure, very easily, and very cheaply. Production increases, and as more and more of the oil is extracted, the pressure goes down until a point where approximately one half of the oil has been extracted. At that point water or nitrogen must be pumped down into the well in order to get the oil to come up. At that point, what comes out of the ground is 99% water and 1% oil. That point is what we call “peak oil” production for that well. The oil is then very expensive to extract for the rest of the life of the well.

In the US, our domestic oil production peaked in 1971. Now, in 2006 we have used up a full ¾ of all the oil we ever had! Germany peaked in the 60’s. Great Britain peaked in 1999. Mexico will peak soon.

Here is the big problem: many geologists and oil experts estimate that the world oil production has already peaked in 2005! Before this, production of oil had kept up with demand. When the world reached peak oil production, this was no longer the case. And as supply dwindles, the market will take over, and prices will rise until the demand diminishes to a point where supply can keep up.

My own personal prediction is that gas prices will be over $10 a gallon by 2010. Soon after, the US economy will come to a crashing halt. Our government will continue to over spend and over import, and that will lead to the decline of the dollar.

When you put a declining dollar together with the upward pressure on oil prices, fuel could easily be $30 or more a gallon in the next 10 years. Not a pretty picture.

That’s a prediction here are the facts:

First go to http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461 and watch or listen to Dr. Bartlett’s lecture on Arithmetic, Population and Energy. If you don’t have high speed internet, you can read his original 1978 paper as well as additional comments made in 1998 here http://home.beeline-online.net/revrick/bartlett_arithmetic_presentation_long.htm .

Next watch a short 12 minute movie mms://media3.abc.net.au/science/broadband/catalyst/oilcrisis_hi.wmv

Then read this lecture to understand more about oil itself http://www.hubbertpeak.com/de/lecture.html

Then I suggest that you Google “peak oil”, there is a bunch of stuff on the web about “peak oil”.

Then make a plan.

My plan is to devote a great deal of my time to research into sustainable small scale agriculture, hydro power, photo-voltaics, and wind. Email me at revrick2222@yahoo.com and tell me your plan.

World peak oil production is not a matter of “if”, it’s a matter of “when”. And an amazing ½ of oil experts believe that we are already past peak oil!