Mankind’s Greatest Challenges

World population growth and the associated resource depletion and environmental damage is the greatest challenge that mankind will ever face. World population growth is at the very root of most of the world’s problems, including global warming, the world economic collapse, wars, and hunger. The near future will be very interesting, to say the least.

For me, the part that is so astonishing is that most people are in denial of fact that our lifestyle as we have known for the last 60 years is about to come to an abrupt end.  And yet, the facts are right there for all to see.

Before the industrial revolution began, the people in the US had a relatively meager existence.  The bulk of our people were producing their own food on small farms, using horse drawn implements.  Many of the mills that were in existence had to rely exclusively on water power.  We used very little petroleum in those days.

Our easy lifestyle, here in the US since the 1950�s is a direct result of cheap petroleum and our knowledge and ability to use petroleum.   Looking back into history, we can see how production and consumption of petroleum directly corresponds with modern lifestyle to which we have become accustomed. In fact, the amount of oil used during the 1950�s is equal to the amount of oil used in the entire history of the world prior to 1950! Plus in the 1960’s we used as much oil as in prior history AGAIN!

Soon internal combustion engines, electric companies, heavy trucks, automobiles, railroads all sprang up. Modern agricultural machinery was invented.  Less people were now needed to work the farms, and many went to the city to work in industrial factories. 

Electricity meant that we could have many conveniences that greatly improved our way of life- like air conditioning, refrigeration, and running water. 

The automobile and airplanes gave us easy personal transportation. Personal transportation meant that we could live quite a distance from where we worked.  Other machinery like chain saws, welders, earth movers, and electric motors all became tools that we came to depend on.

All of this gave us the easy modern life that we now have.  After this, the world had greater access to food, the world had greater access to energy to make us more comfortable, and the world had greater access to machinery and technology. And because the good times were rolling, we tripled the population of the world and doubled the population of the United States in those 60 years!

Now here come the big problems. We all have to share the natural resources with triple the amount of people we used to have. More demand for petroleum products, more demand for metals, more demand for food, more demand for clean water.  Petroleum and metals are finite resources.  And the problem is that at some point the world will start running out of these finite resources, and supply will not be able to keep up with demand for these resources.

That is not the same as saying that we are “almost out” of petroleum or other resources. But “empty” is not the critical point in this scenario.  The real problems come when the world has half of the oil left.  That is the point where oil demand will be far greater than supply.

A graph of oil production in a typical oil well is shaped in a “normal distribution” or “bell shaped curve”.  When an oil well is new, the oil comes out of the ground under pressure, very easily, and very cheaply.  Production increases, and as more and more of the oil is extracted, the pressure goes down until a point where approximately one half of the oil has been extracted.  At that point water or nitrogen must be pumped down into the well in order to get the oil to come up.  At that point, what does come out of the ground is 99% water and 1% oil.  That point is what we call “peak oil” production for that well.  The oil is then very expensive to extract for the rest of the life of the well.

In the US, our domestic oil production peaked in 1970.  Germany peaked in the 60�s.  Great Britain peaked in 1999.  Mexico will peak soon.

When I first wrote this, in 2006, experts estimated that we had used up a full � of all the oil we ever had within the territory of the United States, including the estimated amount of undiscovered oil! And in 2008 at one of the major party’s convention the chant was “drill baby drill”.Aren”t they saying “let’s pump out all our domestic oil faster, that way there we will run out of our own oil sooner”? DAH!

Here is the big problem: many geologists and oil experts believe that the world oil production has already peaked in 2005!  The world has not produced as much oil since.  Before this, production of oil had kept up with demand.  When the world reached peak oil production, this was no longer the case.  And as supply dwindles, the market will take over, and prices will rise until the demand diminishes to a point where supply can keep up.

World population is at the root of many of the world’s problems. These problems are growing, and I agree with the Chris Martenson’s prediction that “the next twenty years will be completely unlike the last twenty years”.

That’s a prediction here are the facts:

First go to http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/dr_albert_bartlett_arithmetic_population_and_energy and watch or listen to Dr. Bartlett’s lecture on Arithmetic, Population and Energy.  If you don’t have high speed internet, you can read his original 1978 paper as well as additional comments made in 1998 here http://home.beeline-online.net/revrick/bartlett_arithmetic_presentation_long.htm .

Next watch a short 12 minute movie mms://media3.abc.net.au/science/broadband/catalyst/oilcrisis_hi.wmv

Then read this lecture to understand more about oil itself http://www.hubbertpeak.com/de/lecture.html

Since the economic status of the US and the world will play heavily upon the future, I strongly suggest that you view the video Crash Course in Economics by Chris Martenson http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse to help you fully understand what is going on with world economics.

Then I suggest that you Google “world population”, “peak oil” or “resource depletion”, and “global warming” .Just remember, these other major problems are symptoms of the larger problem “population growth”.

Then make a plan.  I suggest that you use the framework presented in chapter 20 of Martenson’s “Crash Course” http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse to intelligently prioritize your options and alternatives.

My plan is to devote a great deal of my time to research into sustainable small scale agriculture, hydro power, photo-voltaics, and wind.  Please email me at revrick2222@yahoo.com and tell me your plan.